The article considers the parameter identification issues of linear non-stationary dynamic systems adaptive models using the example of a linearized adjustable model of a DC motor with independent excitation. A new method for estimating the parameters of adjustable models from a small number of observations is developed based on projection identification and the apparatus of linear algebra and analytical geometry. To evaluate the developed identification method, a comparison of the transient processes of the adaptive model of a DC motor with independent excitation with the obtained parameter estimates with reference characteristics was carried out. The efficiency of the proposed identification method in problems of DC electric drive control is shown.

Keywords: DC motor, projection identification, dynamic system parameter estimation, adaptive model of non-stationary dynamic system

The paper examines the causes of the decline in the quality of electrical energy in small settlements. A linear multiplicative model for forecasting electrical loads has been developed based on a time series of electricity consumption in one of the small settlements. A posteriori verification of the multiplicative model has been performed, and the efficiency of the developed model for medium-term forecasting tasks has been demonstrated.

Keywords: electricity consumption, small settlement, linear regression model, multiplicative model, forecasting electrical loads, quality of electrical energy